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博客书架

Update 2012-11-29

6已有 14511 次阅读  2012-11-08 00:45   标签total  alt  position  blank  Chinese 
Review of the Rally

SPY Daily Chart
Comparing with last June ("W" bottom with PD), rally in Nov much stronger. Unlikely "W" bottom. At least no any signs at this time.
Also, this time MACD was only TA indicator could conform the reversal. No pattern worked. Normally, pattern more important than TA indicator.



SPY 60-min Chart
I usually think 60min chart helpful but not reliable.
This time (Nov rally), SPY kept going down, from 140.7 to 134.7,  but macd remained flat, kind of "PD", still unreliable.
But it's only signal could be read.

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2012-11-16
Late update
5555. market bounced without me. no ES position. have to add Monday if needed.
6.2B in total. hb, XIV NUGT green well on my screen. Chinese ADRs deep red. spy ($33B) + aapl ($24B) $57B. obviously buy.

Chart for NASDAQ Composite Index (^IXIC)
Symbol Last Change
Dow 12,588.31 Up 45.93(0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,853.13 Up 16.19(0.57%)
S&P 500 1,359.88 Up 6.55(0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 1.5740% Down 0.0150
NYSE Volume 4,056,647,500.00
Nasdaq Volume... 2,210,332,500.00
Indices: US - World | Most Actives

Advances & Declines

  NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 2,293 (73%) 1,445 (57%)
Declines 800 (25%) 997 (39%)
Unchanged 64 (2%) 101 (4%)
Up Vol* 2,721 (67%) 1,401 (63%)
Down Vol* 1,284 (32%) 762 (34%)
Unch. Vol* 51 (1%) 48 (2%)
New Hi's 127 60
New Lo's 301 264


update
ES makes consecutive LL this morning. 1344, 1342, 1340.25. so does SPY.
Still pretty sure a bounce is around here. could try to back above 200SMA, at final fails then moves down more to, at least 377SMA.

7:00am
Loaded ES 1348. shook out by MM, closed flat 1348.75. Stressful. My primary signal XIV holds well. from 1380's to 1340's, 40 pts down. Early, 50 pts down had finished, from 1430's to 1380's.
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2012-11-15
5.957 B in total. less than 6B but close enough. spy + aapl $39B. pretty high.
compare to last June, need a large/gap down (last June 1st) to end the Bearish market.
Again, GLD is most bearish. NUGT.

Market broke down.
Interesting.
use low of the gap of last Aug, plot FIB lines then most R/S on the FIB lines. More recent ones were 38.2%, then 23.6%, at final, today's 0.0% FIB.

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2012-11-14
it's a MDD. 6.2 B in total. Last hour, spy vol was huge.

Market Summary

Symbol Last Change
Dow 12,570.95 Down 185.23 (1.45%)
Nasdaq 2,846.81 Down 37.08 (1.29%)
S&P 500 1,355.49 Down 19.04 (1.39%)
10-Yr Bond 1.5890% 0.00
NYSE Volume 4,110,070,000.00
Nasdaq Volume... 2,128,907,000.00

Advances & Declines

  NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 317 (10%) 505 (20%)
Declines 2,782 (88%) 1,961 (76%)
Unchanged 60 (2%) 105 (4%)
Up Vol* 337 (8%) 626 (29%)
Down Vol* 3,749 (91%) 1,483 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 24 (1%) 20 (1%)
New Hi's 174 66
New Lo's 244 211
*in millions
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2012-11-11 Market at Post-Election
ES night-shift

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2012-11-09 Market at Post-Election
update 7:00am
ES stop-gain out at 1380 last night. XIV exit $16 this morning. Friday, nothing surprising.
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2012-11-08 Market at Post-Election
上刺刀 time to buy
Loaded ES and XIV at EOD. Expect to bounce at 200SMA
(Ha-ha, 5pts higher than CM Laoda entry. he is a real genius)

ES 60-min. PD, a bounce pending.


SPY 1-m. On support (upper channel of down-trend)

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2012-11-07
1st day after US president election
See hi-vol again. 6.4 B in total. 1st day after US president election. 08 re-elected. 44th.
btw, spy + aapl, pv $53B, much higher than normal $26B.
Last night ES hit recent high 1431, this morning, recent low 1384. 47 pts swing. market welcome 08 with its way.

Today's hi-vol doesn't mean many buy-dip.
Indeed, intraday pattern hinted, before EOD, many closed their positions built early today. Hence hi-vol (almost doubled).
If true, we are approaching a cliff, more down ahead.

Today it's 1st time this month SPY touched its mid-term down-trend upper channel (when ES 1384).

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